By: Keyur Seta

The Bihar Election results are keenly awaited in the whole of India. The political scenario in the country has changed so drastically over the last few years that the excitement for the result of a state election is not limited to that state alone.

Politics, which was once a loathed word, has now become a topic for debate, discussion and, even, fights across people of all age groups, including teenagers. This has largely to do with the advent of social media, where politics is discussed 24/7, even when there are no elections taking place anywhere in India.

The scenario during the 2015 Bihar Elections isn’t any different. After months of non-stop campaigning, attacking speeches with insults and name-calling and innumerable fights on social media among the supporters of various parties, it will all finally boil down to the result day on November 8, 2015.

The D-Day will answer few questions that have been lurking in our minds lately. Will Nitish Kumar be able to retain his seat as the Chief Minister? Will Modi magic work in Bihar as well? Who will win Bihar?

Here is a short analysis of where the two biggest alliances, BJP led NDA and Janata Dal-United led Janata Parivar aka Mahagathbandhan, stand:-

NDA:

Plusses: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi still continues to be quite popular among the masses. BJP is banking on his name. His good work as the Chief Minister of Gujarat is still fresh in people’s minds. His promise of spending a humongous amount for the development of Bihar might also attract voters.

Minuses: Inability to fulfill Lok Sabha poll promises, including the failure to control rising prices and the return of Black Money within 100 days, has affected the BJP. But what has hurt the party the most is the continuous dose of hateful and communal statements by some key BJP figures and the PM’s failure of stopping them. It goes completely against the major promise of the party, which is development. Plus, Amit Shah’s Jumla statement has made things worse.

One of the major reasons for BJP’s loss in the Delhi Elections is been attributed to the fact that their leaders, especially Modi, resorted to a lot of personal attacks and mudslinging during their speeches. Unfortunately, they have continued it during this election as well.

Janata Parivar:

Plusses: The biggest plus point for JPU is the way Nitish Kumar has developed Bihar in the last ten years from the Lalu mess. He has made sure that the backward stigma attached with Bihar and Biharis is slowly diminishing. His clean image and the fact that he is educated are also advantages.

Minuses: The tactic of joining hands with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and the Congress can go against Nitish as it goes against his non-corrupt. Lalu, as we all know, is a convict under the Chara Ghotala. He is even barred from contesting elections for the next six years.

Not to forget, Nitish and Lalu were enemies at one point of time. In fact, they had openly attacked each other during the Lok Sabha Polls last year. The theory of compromise also stems from the recent leaked video where Nitish is seen meeting a taantrik, who is heard raising slogans “Nitish zindabad. Lalu murdabad.”

The same can be said about Nitish’s alliance with the Congress. It’s a party in shatters after the humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha Polls and the complete whitewash in Delhi Elections, thanks to the numerous scams during its regime at the Center. Hence, this alliance appears more like a compromise to satiate the hunger for power and to keep Modi and BJP away from Bihar at all costs.

Prediction of Bihar Elections:

(This prediction is not based on any exit poll and neither am I a political expert. This is just a calculation of a common citizen of India based on the recent political developments.)

No alliance will be getting a clear majority. The pluses and minuses of both camps are almost equal. From the look of things, the votes would be strongly divided between NDA and JP. Therefore, the final results for both alliances would either be too close or close to equal, if not properly equal.

Whose Happy Diwali will it be? There is a lot at stake.