Experts often use the phrase ‘Win the toss, win the match’ by taking the nature of the pitch and other conditions into account as it is believed that the team that wins the toss will most probably win the match. This phrase can be used for Team India for their all important final match of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011 at the Wankhede Stadium against Sri Lanka on Saturday April 2, 2011.

If India wins the toss and decides to bat first and puts up a challenging  score, they have a great chance of grabbing the World Cup. This is simply because Sri Lanka has struggled to chase challenging totals in recent times. This can be attributed to the fact that they have a long tail. Sri Lanka’s number 7 batsman Angelo Matthews, who hasn’t been in that good form, is followed by 4 bowlers, Lasith Malinga, Rangana Herath, Ajantha Mendis and Muttiah Murlitharan, who are mug with the bat.

Lanka was affected by their long tail in their match against Pakistan when they were unable to chase a challenging score of 277. They have won chasing twice in the tournament against Kenya and England. In the first instance, they had to chase just 143 and that too against a minnow. And against England, they were chasing a non-challenging score (230) which their openers managed alone. So, if India bats first and puts up a total close to 280 or more, it will be huge ask for the 1996 World Cup champions.

Apart from that, looking back at all the one-day internationals played at the Wankhede Stadium, team that bats first and scores more than 250 has always won the match. No team has won batting second when the team batting first has gone on to score more than 250. This statistic, coupled with the fact that Sri Lanka has a long tail, clearly indicates that India has a mammoth chance batting first. Hence, if we win the toss, the ICC World Cup 2011 could well be ours!